The War Is Just Beginning: America's Reckoning with Iran
In a recent interview, Colonel Douglas Macgregor argued that recent strikes on Iran were ineffective and that Iran will retaliate, potentially leading to Israel's destruction and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, heavily impacting global oil markets.
He also claimed Russia and China will support Iran, with Russia possibly threatening nuclear retaliation if Israel uses nuclear weapons.
We will have to wait and see how many of Macgregor’s predictions come true.
But just today nuclear-armed Pakistan announced they are backing Iran.
Missile strikes continue, with Israel suffering tremendous damage.
And Iran just launched a missile attack on a US base in Qatar:
BUT AFTER POSTING THIS, TRUMP ANNOUNCED A CEASEFIRE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN HAD BEEN AGREED TO. LET’S SEE IF IT HOLDS.
Here is a briefing on the Key Arguments presented by retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor in his interview, "The war is just beginning."
1. The US is Now at War with Iran, Driven by Israeli Influence:
Macgregor asserts that the recent strike was not a localized incident but rather marks the beginning of a full-blown war with Iran. He unequivocally states, "The United States is now at war with Iran as Israel's critical and ultimately only real ally." He attributes this outcome to decades of lobbying and influence from "Israel its lobby and ultimately its agents in the United States," who have "tried to bring on for 30 years they've now achieved it." Macgregor highlights Netanyahu's "almost giddy" response as evidence that Israel has achieved its long-sought objective.
2. A Strategic Failure and Delusion by US Policymakers:
Macgregor is highly critical of the decision-making process, stating there was a "failure at the policy level to understand what they were doing." He dismisses the effectiveness of the strike, noting that the targets were "empty buildings empty targets" and that the action accomplished "harm nothing and accomplish nothing." He views the subsequent announcement of readiness for peace as "the ultimate expression of self-d delusion," as the US now has "a full-blown war on its hands." He believes the American public is largely unaware of the true gravity of the situation: "until the Americans are hurt in some demonstrable way most Americans will not understand this."
3. Immediate and Dire Consequences for Israel and the Region:
Macgregor predicts swift and devastating consequences. He states, "Iran is going to double down on its war with Israel in fact within the next two weeks I'd be surprised if Israel is not entirely destroyed." He also anticipates the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, holding "50 oil tankers sitting in the Gulf" hostage, which will have a "terrible impact on the rest of the world."
4. Global Geopolitical Realignment and the US as the "Rogue State":
The interview emphasizes a significant shift in global alliances and perceptions.
Support for Iran: "Iran is receiving and will continue to receive enormous amounts of aid and support particularly from Russia and China."
Nuclear Proliferation: Macgregor argues that the US action will incentivize more nations to develop nuclear weapons: "there will be countries all over the world that will now build nuclear weapons because they don't want to be visited by the United States armed forces in the middle of the night."
US as a Threat: He controversially labels the US as "the threat we are the rogue state supporting the other rogue state Israel."
Gaza as the Catalyst: Macgregor stresses that "Gaza is the catalyst for the larger war that's now going to begin against Israel. Every Muslim country is going to come on board against Israel along with Russia along with China."
Russian Nuclear Deterrence: He believes Russia has already warned Israel against using nuclear weapons, stating, "if you use a nuclear weapon against Iran or anyone in the Middle East we will use a nuclear weapon against you."
5. Domestic Impact: Trump's Base and US Government Incompetence:
Macgregor foresees significant domestic political fallout and a revelation of government failings.
Loss of Trump's Base: He predicts "desertions from so-called MAGA" due to this "total about face for the Donald Trump that people thought they were electing." He argues that "MAGA turns out to have been a myth... you were voting for Israel first and that's what you got for a cabinet that's what you got for a government."
Government Corruption and Incompetence: Macgregor broadly condemns the US government as "corrupt to its core... ineffective it's incompetent." He believes this war will expose these weaknesses, leading to the "whole place is going to come apart."
6. Inevitable US Withdrawal from the Middle East and Global Collapse:
Macgregor predicts a forced and beneficial (in the long run) US withdrawal from the region.
Loss of Influence: "We are going to lose everything as a result of this overseas we are inevitably going to be driven out of the Middle East."
Destruction of Israel: "we're going to watch Israel be destroyed day after day after day."
Regional Instability: He warns that "the family dictatorships that controlled the Arabian side of the Persian Gulf are not going to survive this."
Financial Meltdown: He anticipates a "very likely financial meltdown" in the US, with negative stock market reactions, rising interest rates, and inflation.
Domestic Unrest and Threats: Macgregor expresses grave concerns about potential "terrible things happening here inside the United States" due to open borders and the possibility of "the explosion of a dirty bomb inside our borders."
7. Erosion of American Credibility and Shifting Global Dynamics:
Macgregor argues that the US's actions have destroyed its international credibility. "Absolutely no one believes anything we say anymore... this is a death blow for that purpose."
Russia's Strength: He highlights Russia's ongoing military advances in Ukraine, asserting, "Russia just isn't as weak backward and incompetent as everybody said."
China's Focus on Business: Macgregor dismisses the idea of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, stating, "neither the Chinese on Taiwan nor the Chinese on the mainland are interested in going to war with anybody for any reason they're all about business." He emphasizes China's economic interests, particularly its "Belt and Road" initiative, for which "Iran is vital and essential."
Most Important Ideas/Facts:
US-Iran War is Underway: The most critical immediate takeaway is Macgregor's assertion that the US is already in a full-blown war with Iran, driven by decades of Israeli influence.
Imminent Destruction of Israel Predicted: His prediction of Israel's destruction "within the next two weeks" is a shocking and central claim.
Global Realignment: The idea that Russia and China will fully support Iran against the US and Israel, and that Muslim countries will unite against Israel, signals a significant shift in global power dynamics.
US Credibility is Lost: Macgregor's firm belief that "no one believes anything we say anymore" has profound implications for US diplomacy and future international relations.
Gaza as the Unacknowledged Catalyst: The emphasis on Gaza as the true trigger for the wider conflict, largely ignored by Western media, is a critical perspective.
Domestic Consequences: The predicted financial meltdown, domestic unrest, and the exposure of government incompetence and corruption represent severe internal challenges for the US.
"Israel First" Policy: Macgregor's controversial claim that US foreign policy, regardless of administration, is fundamentally "Israel first" is a core tenet of his argument.
Inevitable US Retreat: The prediction of a forced US withdrawal from the Middle East, while framed as a long-term positive, signifies a major loss of influence and power.
In essence, Macgregor paints a picture of a US government that is incompetent and delusional, having stumbled into a conflict that will lead to catastrophic regional destruction, global geopolitical upheaval, a severe domestic crisis, and ultimately, a forced retreat from its long-held international positions. He argues that this entire scenario has been orchestrated by external influences and will only be understood by the American public once severe consequences are felt domestically.
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