One of my great subscribers raked me through the coals for producing a podcast based on Ret. Lt. Col. Douglas MacGregor’s analysis of the Israeli-Iran conflict. She recommended a podcast based on Michael T. Flynn's book: "The Field of Fight: How to Win The Global War Against Radical Islam and Its Allies.”
Since I aim to please, I have included a secondary podcast on Flynn’s book at the end of this article. But I don’t think it will make her happy.
To clarify, these posts express views from different people that I don’t necessarily agree with. Every listener is encouraged to do their own research—to decide for themselves what are facts and what are opinions. My advice is to question everything, including my writings.
The subject of today’s podcast relates to Iran's Strategic Patience and Effective Attrition Warfare
Former (UNSCOM) weapons inspector, author, and commentator Scott Ritter suggests that Israel’s attacks are not a genuine attempt at regime change in Iran but rather a desperate move by Netanyahu to re-establish Israel's perceived impunity on the global stage amidst international criticism and legal challenges following the Gaza campaign.
He critiques Israel's recent strikes against Iran, arguing that the justifications offered by the Israeli government, such as preventative measures against an immediate nuclear threat or an attempt to decapitate Iran's nuclear program, lack supporting evidence.
Ritter argues that these actions are driven by a broad definition of "security" that allows Israel to act without consequence, aiming to secure Netanyahu's own political standing.
Ritter also argues that Iran's strategy is "realistic, responsible, and very pragmatic," designed for a "long-term conflict" and based on a war of attrition. He contrasts this with Israel's "unpredictable" and "crazy" tactics.
This podcast and briefing analyzes Scott Ritter's assessment of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on Iran's strategic approach, the escalating costs for Israel, the catastrophic implications of direct U.S. military intervention, and the political motivations shaping decision-making in both Israel and the United States.
Calculated Caution vs. Israeli Impulsiveness: While some critics within Iran believe the nation has been "too cautious, too conservative, too predictable," Ritter asserts that Iran has been preparing for this type of conflict for a long time, anticipating a potential physical attack from the U.S. since 2003. They are prepared for a conflict lasting "months," unlike Israel's "days."
Economic Devastation of Israel: Ritter claims Israel has already suffered "half a trillion dollars in damage to infrastructure" within a week of the conflict, making economic recovery impossible even if the war ended immediately. He emphasizes that if the conflict continues for "two or three more weeks," it will lead to the "physical destruction of Israel," making its survival as a nation-state "impossible."
Maintaining US Non-Intervention: A key aspect of Iran's strategy is "keeping the United States out of this conflict." Ritter believes this is crucial because "the only hope for Israel's survival is direct intervention of the United States." Iran has been "very successful in that regard thus far."
Superior Missile Capabilities and Iron Dome Failure: Ritter asserts that Israel "cannot defend itself against Iranian missiles." He dismisses the effectiveness of the Iron Dome, even with US support, stating that "Iron Dome cannot defeat Iran." He highlights Iran's use of "more advanced technology missiles with greater penetration and greater accuracy," which are causing "more damage now with fewer strikes." This implies a shift from overwhelming "ballistic missile solution for Iron Dome" to precise, impactful attacks.
Targeted Infrastructure Attacks: Iran's strategy involves "absolutely brilliant" targeting of "specific infrastructure," such as power plants, to inflict maximum economic and social disruption on Israel.
The Catastrophic Prospect of US Intervention
Ritter strongly believes that direct US military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely due to domestic political considerations and the potentially catastrophic global consequences.
Trump's Anti-War Stance: President Trump, despite "bellicose rhetoric," faces "real impediments" to going to war with Iran. His political platform is "based on peace and the majority of his supporters voted for him to keep America out of wars." Ritter notes that many Americans are "pro-America" rather than traditionally "pro-Israel."
"Pearl Harbor" Comparison and Shifting US Sentiment: Ritter draws a controversial parallel between Israel's actions and the Pearl Harbor attack, stating that Israel is "bragging about doing a 9/11." He argues that this behavior has "alienated many Americans," particularly given the "ongoing genocide that's taking place in Palestine." This has created a situation where "many Americans are looking at what's happening to Israel today and saying, 'Well, that's justice.'"
Economic Instability and Social Unrest: A war with Iran would lead to "global economic instability," including "twenty dollar a gallon gasoline" and "no access to diesel fuel for our trucks." This would cause stores to be empty and lead to "social unrest that will be devastating to the President." Ritter believes Trump's advisors are informing him of these severe domestic consequences.
No US Conventional Victory: Ritter contends that the US cannot conventionally defeat Iran. He states, "we don't have enough forces to win conventionally attack and occupy." This leads to the terrifying conclusion that the only way the US could "win" a war against Iran is by "using nuclear weapons."
Nuclear Option: A Real, Catastrophic War Plan: Ritter reveals the existence of a "real war plan" from the Trump administration's first term to attack Iran with tactical nuclear weapons, designed for "regime change and striking regime targets, striking economic targets to bring about a societal collapse, economic collapse of Iran." This plan, involving "dozens of nuclear weapons," is not "fantasy" or "exaggeration" but a "real war plan" recognized by Congress.
Global Nuclear Proliferation Risk: Such an attack would "open up Pandora's box" and be "devastating to the United States." It would remove the "taboo against the use of nuclear weapons" for Russia and China, potentially leading to nuclear attacks against Europe, Taiwan, or Guam.
Ritter's Opposition to Nuclear Use: Despite describing the war plan, Ritter stresses, "I'm not saying it's wise, I'm saying the exact opposite, I'm saying it's the most unwise thing in the world."
Israel's Desperate Situation and Miscalculations
Ritter portrays Israel as being in a "very precarious situation," driven by internal political pressures and a fundamental miscalculation of Iran's capabilities and resolve.
Self-Inflicted "Suicide": Israel's decision to continue the war is "kind of an act of suicide on the part of Israel."
Netanyahu's Political Motivation: Ritter suggests that Prime Minister Netanyahu is "leading this for his own political survival," facing "domestic political opposition" and seeking to "expand wars so he can continue to survive in the name of a wartime leader."
Reliance on US Intervention: Israel has always understood that it "cannot initiate and sustain an aerial attack against Iran without the assistance of the United States." Ritter implies that Netanyahu's aggressive actions are a desperate attempt to "make American intervention absolutely essential and absolutely unavoidable."
Weakened Military Position: Israel is "weaker today than they would be at any other time prior to this," already engaged in conflicts in Gaza, with Hezbollah, and in Syria.
Misunderstanding of Iran's Nuclear Stance: Ritter firmly states that Iran "has no nuclear weapons program," and that "all intelligence assessments show Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon." He criticizes the notion that Iran's enrichment activities justify a pre-emptive strike, arguing that Iran has been "willing to sign a treaty that says we will never have nuclear weapons."
Iran's Nuclear Program: Sovereignty and Deterrence Without Weapons
Ritter defends Iran's right to peaceful nuclear enrichment while criticizing its "threshold state" approach prior to the conflict as a "very irresponsible act" that gave Israel a pretext for attack.
Legitimate Enrichment Rights: Ritter supports Iran's "every legitimate right to have a nuclear energy program including a nuclear fuel cycle that Iran is allowed to enrich to 3.75 percent." He believes that if Iran wins this war, it will be "allowed to have it."
Threshold State as a Provocation: While defending Iran's right to enrichment, Ritter states that Iran's decision to become a "threshold state" (with 60% enriched uranium, enough for 3-10 nuclear weapons) was "highly irresponsible" because it was "waving a red flag in front of the Israeli bull." He argues that the war "would have never happened if not for Iran doing that."
Nuclear Weapons as Self-Destructive: Ritter emphasizes that a nuclear weapon would not save Iran. Instead, it would "only guarantee Iran's destruction by US nuclear weapons." He praises Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for his fatwa against nuclear weapons, stating it is "doing exactly the right thing."
The Mearsheimer Disagreement: Ritter strongly disagrees with John Mearsheimer's argument that a nuclear Iran would be safer for the region, stating that Mearsheimer "doesn't know what he's talking about." He asserts that Iran would never be "allowed to get to a point where" it could develop a functional nuclear arsenal.
US Political Landscape and the Future of Hegemony
Ritter touches on the internal political struggles within the US and the broader implications for American global standing.
Trump's Struggle Against Pro-War Factions: Ritter notes that Trump "stood up against" the "Atlanticist model" that wanted to prolong the Ukraine war, indicating his capacity to resist powerful lobbies.
Weakening of the Pro-Israel Lobby: He believes the pro-Israel lobby, while powerful, has seen its "power diluted because of the absolutely horrific behavior of Israel over the last year and a half." Many Americans are no longer "automatically aligning themselves with Israel."
Threat to US Hegemony: If the US stands by and allows Israel to be physically destroyed, it would "tell the rest of America's allies that if China does something, if Russia does something... America will do nothing and then it's the end of American hegemony." This concern could still push the US to act, even if unwise.
Recommendations for Iran
Ritter's advice to Iran is clear: continue the current strategy and do not escalate in a way that would justify US intervention or alienate international support.
Continue Attrition and Reveal Capabilities Gradually: Iran should "continue doing exactly what you're doing, you're winning this war." He recommends "gradually revealing weapons" to demonstrate the "inevitability of the outcome" to Israel.
Avoid Provoking US: Iran has "done everything" to avoid provoking the US, "not been provocative to the Americans." It should continue to act "rationally."
Offer a Path to Peace: Iran should continue to offer Israel a way out: "This war will stop as soon as Israel stops attacking Iran."
Do Not Pursue Nuclear Weapons: Ritter unequivocally advises Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, as it would lead to its destruction. "You're winning without a nuclear weapon, you're defeating a nuclear armed state, Israel, unless Israel uses nuclear weapons in this war, which is the end of Israel."
The following is a podcast review of General Mike Flynn’s book "The Field of Fight: How to Win The Global War Against Radical Islam and Its Allies.” Both Flynn and Lt. Gen. Douglas MacGregor are considered “war heroes” for participating in Bush’s unnecessary and illegal invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and the slaughter of one million citizens.
There are other disturbing facts about Mike Flynn that disgust me. My research shows that he advised Trump to suspend the Constitution and declare martial law. Also sourced here. He has advocated for only one religion in this country. Also sourced here.
The two enemies of the people are criminals and government, so let us tie the second down with the chains of the Constitution so the second will not become the legalized version of the first. —Anonymous
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